Reply-To: [email protected] Sender: [email protected] From: MINELRES moderator <[email protected]> Date: Tue, 20 Apr 1999 23:52:49 +0300 (EET DST) Message-Id: <[email protected]> Subject: Kosovo: possible scenarios
From: MINELRES moderator <[email protected]>
Original sender: Zidas Daskalovski <[email protected]>
Kosovo: possible scenarios
>From the moderator: it seems to me that some points made by Zidas are
disputable (in particular, that the aim of the NATO intervention was
to "equal forces" between Serbian army and KLA, at least officially
stated goal was different - to stop oppression of civilians). Anyway,
the questions raised are definitely of great importance, and comments
will be appreciated.
Boris
---------------
Thinking about the crisis in Kosovo one should have in mind the
following question: what was the situation on the ground (in Kosovo)
before the strikes?
The answer to this question will illuminate the events that have
unwraped in the past month and gives some scenarios for the future of
the war. In any case the answer to the posed question is that on the
ground Serbia was more powerful then KLA because it could relay on
heavy artilery, tanks, and armored vehicles as well as well integrated
army infrastructure.
Although at times ineffective, NATO's campaign has aimed at reducing
this disadvantage for the KLA, destroying Serbian oil reserves, hiting
tanks and armored vehicles, destroying bridges, communication centres.
Evidently, the NATO campaign has not bothered with the humanitartian
aspect of the crisis (at a news conference one of the generals
admitted that for ethnic cleansing you need just a band of
paramilitaries with 'Kalashnikovs'), only with the military. Given
that NATO states, US in particular, are not ready, and I would say
with good reasons, to engage in a ground campaign, the only ones who
will be able to literally kick out the Serbs from Kosovo are the KLA
units. It comes to no surprise then that NATO, if not officially then
behind the scenes, equips and prepares KLA for a ground war. Seen from
this perspective Milosevic's campaign of ethnic cleansing seems
reasonable policy(in fact the campaign of ethic cleansing can be to a
large extent charactarised as campaign of 'deportation' to the
neighbouring states) he understands well that what is coming is a
Vietnam type of warfare, one in which his army will not have such
advantage in military technique as it did before the NATO air
strikes.He does not want to engage in this war on a 'hostile
territory', territory inhabited by ethnic Albanians, directly or
indirectly supportive of the KLA units.
Having said all this, what can we conclude about the possible
scenarios for the war in Kosovo?
It seems to me that a well motivated KLA supported by the NATO air
force will sooner or later defeat the Serbian forces stationed in
Kosovo. What would Milosevic probably try to do, is to hold onto some
piece of the Kosovo territory (partition plans). Focusing on the
territory around the few Serbian populated municipalities he will
entrench there and take a fight. Here, according to me we can imagine
two scenarios:
a) after KLA has 'liberated' most of the Albanian inhabited parts of
Kosovo, say 80% of Kosovo, it might want to strike a deal with Serbia
(very unlikely scenario, unless the West is prepared to sanction this
end game)
b) Given that the West constantly reiterates the position that Kosovo
should be given autonomy status under international forces protection,
a) is unlikely - NATO will further help KLA which will in foreseeble
future defeat even those entrenched Serbian forces.
KLA and NATO will stop there, NATO will stop bombing send troops to
ensure the safe coming back of the refugees, and together with KLA
units entrench on the borders of Kosovo with Serbia. Serbia will be
defeated, but it will be still dangerous place to live in. Serbia
would suffer from another mass exodus, one which is happening to some
extent even now-Kosovo Serbs are leaving for 'inner' Serbia, much of
the country infrastructure will be destroyed, Seselj's reaction will
be fierce, people will be depressed and angry (we suffered all this
and we lost?) This is the moment I can't predict any further - it
possible that West will offer some kind of 'Marshall plan' for the
Balkans, including Serbia if Milosevic resings. Whether he would be
able to cling to power is difficult to estimate - he has proven very
daft in doing so for the last 10 years - but I estimate he won't, the
pressure will be too high and coming from many sides (nationalists,
ex-opposition, army, etc...). If such outcomes materializes who will
come to power next is of no importance, the new Serbian leader will
accept Western help for rebuilding of the country be him nationalist
or democrat (otherwise Sebs will have a Middle Ages winter - with no
food, heating, jobs, anything meaningful).
The other possible scenario is similar to the developments in Iraq
after the Gulf war. The West does not offer financial help and does
not pressure Milosevic to quit. In turn, somehow, he deals with the
Serbian opposition and Serbian people, and stays in power. Although
sad, this scenario is not difficult to imagine ('Slobo' will claim
that he had to give up Kosovo, that Serbia's economic disaster is
because of NATO attacks, and so forth. The people wil buy it, they
will have no choice anyway). Of course this is a 'nightmareish' vision
of developments for Serbia - Serbia will be isolated, poor below any
imagination, frustrated, doomed in short. In any case, I am not
advocating any of the scenarios, I hope the crisis will be solved
faster, and with less casualties.
Zidas Daskalovski
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